Vancouver Vacancy Forecast Puts Rental Towers Ahead Of Weak Condo Starts

Canada's freshest housing-market risk remains highly local: CMHC's summer update shows Vancouver and Toronto moving into a period where rental completions rise while condominium starts remain under pressure.

Vancouver Has A Supply Timing Problem

CMHC expects elevated vacancy in Metro Vancouver as rental apartments started in earlier years complete into a slower demand environment. The agency's forecast range keeps 2026 vacancy around the low-four percent area, a major change from the tight conditions landlords used to underwrite.

Condo Presales Are The Weak Link

The same outlook points to stalled or postponed condominium projects in Vancouver and Victoria because presales, construction costs and rent-growth assumptions no longer support every application. That makes the apartment pipeline increasingly rental-led rather than investor-condo led.

Toronto Shares The Pattern

Toronto's condo market faces weak pre-construction sales and high resale inventory, while rental starts partly offset the decline in ownership construction. Buyers in downtown Toronto and suburban high-rise nodes should compare resale units with developer incentives before assuming presale premiums hold.

What Buyers Should Watch

Vancouver and Toronto buyers should ask whether a project is changing from condo to rental, delaying launch, or adding incentives to meet lender thresholds. Those details reveal more than a national starts forecast.

Outlook

Canada's next local signal is whether autumn lenders and developers restart delayed condo projects. Vancouver and Toronto renters may gain choice, but affordable family-sized rental supply remains the harder shortage.

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