Bay Area Vacancy Risk Keeps Metro Manila RFO Discounts At The Centre Of Condo Sales

The Philippines' Metro Manila condo market is recovering selectively, but Bay Area vacancy risk keeps ready-for-occupancy discounts and affordable-unit promotions at the centre of buyer decisions.

Presales Improved From A Low Base

Colliers-linked reporting showed Q1 2026 pre-selling net take-up rising sharply from a very weak prior year, with net take-up around 2,000 units and demand concentrated in economic and affordable projects. That signals buyers are returning, but mainly where payment terms and unit prices fit tighter budgets.

Vacancy Is Still Elevated

The same market view warned that Metro Manila residential vacancy could reach about 25.6 percent by the end of 2026 as nearly 13,000 condominium units complete. The Bay Area remains the most exposed submarket, with vacancy risk approaching extreme levels because of large supply turnover.

RFO Promotions Shape Pricing

Developers are using flexible payment plans, discounts and early move-in terms to reduce ready-for-occupancy stock. Buyers in Quezon City, Ortigas, Makati and the Bay Area should compare net contract price after incentives, not only list price.

What Buyers Should Watch

A Metro Manila buyer should compare the cash discount, deferred payment schedule and true association dues on RFO units. In the Bay Area, vacancy risk deserves a bigger price concession.

Outlook

Metro Manila's next signal is whether affordable demand can absorb RFO inventory before new completions land. Bay Area sellers need sharper pricing than stronger CBD buildings.

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